Climate change perception in agricultural production and migration intentions in Developing Countries: Evidence from African Countries

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Résumé

This study aims to assess the effect of climate change perception in agricultural production on the migration intention.
We understand the migration intention as a process ranging from desire and planning to preparation. Using data from the 7th
round of Afrobarometer surveys, we estimate a sequential logit model on a sample of 44,224 adults in 33 African countries.
Descriptive results show that 36% of adults express a desire to move elsewhere to live; 14% have planned to leave within the next
two years, and only 3% are preparing to migrate. Econometric estimates reveal that people for whom climatic conditions in
agricultural production have become worse are more likely to wish to migrate and to be planning to migrate within the next two
years. The study also identifies other factors that significantly influence migration intention. These include age, which has a negative
effect, i.e., younger people (18-25 years old) are more likely to have a migration intention than older people, gender - with women
having a lower migration intention than men, higher level of education, internet use and level of remittance dependency, which
significantly affect all stages of the migration intention process, political commitment, perception of governance, etc. This study
highlights the need to take greater account of climate change in public policies, and in particular in migration policies. It also
suggests focusing on improving people's living conditions by targeting the youngest, the most educated, those frustrated by
governance, and those heavily dependent on remittances.

Mots-clés

Climate change; Migration intention; Africa; Sequential process.