Modelling the effects of diurnal temperature variation on malaria infection dynamics in mosquitoes

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Résumé

Mosquito infection experiments that characterise how sporogony changes with temperature are increasingly being used to parameterise malaria transmission models. In these experiments, mosquitoes are exposed to a range of temperatures, with each group experiencing a single temperature. Diurnal temperature variation can, however, affect the sporogonic cycle of Plasmodium parasites. Mosquito dissection data is not available for all temperature profiles, so we investigate whether mathematical models of mosquito infection parameterised with constant temperature thermal performance curves can predict the effects of diurnal temperature variation. We use this model to predict two key parameters governing disease transmission: the human-to-mosquito transmission probability and extrinsic incubation period – and, embed this model into a malaria transmission model to simulate sporozoite prevalence with and without the effects of diurnal and seasonal temperature variation for a single site in Burkina Faso. Simulations incorporating diurnal temperature variation better predict changes in sporogony in laboratory mosquitoes, indicating that constant temperature experiments can be used to predict the effects of fluctuating temperatures. Including the effects of diurnal temperature variation, however, did not substantially improve the predictive ability of the transmission model to predict changes in sporozoite prevalence in wild mosquitoes, indicating further research is needed in more settings. Mechanistic modelling of the effects of diurnal temperature variation on Plasmodium falciparum sporogony indicates this variation is important in the laboratory, but further validation is required to assess its effect in wild mosquitoes.

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