Modeling land degradation sensitivity with the MEDALUS framework in the Massili River Basin, Burkina Faso: A 30-Year Case study

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Résumé

Land degradation in the Massili River Basin of Burkina Faso reflects a nexus of climatic stressors and intensifying human pressures, threatening the livelihoods of the local population. This study employs the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model and Google Earth Engine (GEE) analysis for the assessment of Environmental Sensitivity Areas (ESAs) from 1992 to 2022. Using climate (CQI), vegetation (VQI), management (MQI), and soil (SQI) quality indices, the study evaluates the basin’s susceptibility to land degradation. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to analyse the relationships among the variables that define the ESAs and to determine their relative contributions to the Massili River Basin’s sensitivity to land degradation. The results indicate a reduction in climate-driven (rainfall and aridity) degradation factors over time, while human-induced degradation, particularly those related to vegetation loss and unsustainable land management, have intensified. The ESA analysis reveals a shift in land degradation hotspots, with increasing fragility and critical degradation in the basin’s southern-eastern region, corresponding to expanding urban and agricultural activities. The PCA highlights the increasing influence of human pressures, with MQI and VQI emerging as the dominant determinants of land degradation sensitivity. The findings emphasize the urgent need for sustainable land-use practices, strategic interventions in the agroecologies, and participatory conservation efforts to mitigate further degradation and enhance land resilience.

Mots-clés

Modeling land degradation, MEDALUS, Massili River Basin, Burkina Faso