The objective of this study was to analyse the potential impact of future climate change on grassland cover in Burkina Faso. MODIS NDVI 250 m time series were used to monitor changes in grassland over 2000–2022. The random forest regres sion (RFR) model was fit by regressing reference data of grassland cover against current climatic and other environmental predictors to predict the current grassland cover map (2022). Projected climate model data of CMIP6 used under SSP 126 and SSP 585 scenarios were integrated into the fit RFR model to predict future change. The results revealed that grassland areas were largely dominated by non-significant productivity change (55%) during 2000–2022. In this period, grassland area knew more increased productivity (35%) than decrease (10%). Burkina Faso is predicted to face more decreased areas of grassland cover than increase by 2061–2080 under SSP 126 and SSP 585 scenarios. The findings of this study can help to set up appropriate adaptation measures to combat climate change in Burkina Faso.

Grassland cover change, Productivity change, Climate change, Random forest regression, Land degradation, Burkina Faso